A surging electronics sector and anticipation of cheaper borrowing costs likely extended China's export rebound for a second month in December, painting a glimmer of hope for a 2024 global trade revival. While ongoing challenges like a potential dip in Chinese imports and pessimistic forecasts suggest improving data from China, South Korea, and Germany, a slow but hopeful turnaround may be underway. This uptick in demand for high-tech goods and expectations of lower interest rates could offer a much-needed boost to global trade activity in the year ahead, although continued attacks by Houthis cast dark clouds over trade.
EQUITY
Major index muted after a big jump on Monday, with American Airlines soaring after an analyst upgrade and Nvidia hitting record highs on new AI-powered GPUs. Boeing tumbled after the FAA grounded 737 Max 9 jets over safety concerns. In Asia, stocks were mixed as investors grappled with bets on the Fed's tightening timeline ahead of US inflation data. Japan's Nikkei jumped 2%, hitting a 34-year high on speculation of a delayed BOJ policy pivot due to a recent earthquake.
GOLD
Gold treads water ahead of US inflation data, cautiously awaiting cues for the Fed's dance with rates. While a dollar uptick and sticky yields apply the brakes, whispers of easing inflation and potential March rate cuts could see the precious metal waltz higher. Thursday's CPI report holds the key, ready to ignite a bullish tango or prolong the slow foxtrot.
OIL
A brutal freezestorm gripping the eastern U.S. is projected to ignite record natural gas demand despite muted spot prices, potentially sparking price volatility as traders weigh winter's chill against Saudi Arabia's recent oil price cuts and waning global demand concerns. Meanwhile, surging U.S. product inventories highlight a disconnect between domestic refining and demand, casting a shadow over oil's rebound potential.
CURRENCY
Global currencies held their breath ahead of US inflation data on Thursday. The Aussie dollar defied the trend and gained against the greenback, reinforced by easing domestic inflation. Meanwhile, expectations of further monetary easing weakened China's yuan, while Bitcoin remained steady after false ETF approval news triggered a rollercoaster ride.
