According to the latest data from the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), global food commodity prices dropped again in October. The overall price index declined, and the cereal index showed a decline across all major cereals. At the same time, the FAO estimates that global cereal production will reach a record high of approximately 2.99 billion tons in 2025, an increase of 4.4% over the last year. Global cereal stocks are expected to rise by 5.7% after the current season, representing the highest stock-to-use ratio since the 2017/18 season.
When looking at oilseeds and processed foods, the situation is a little more complicated. The FAO Food Price Index (FFPI), which is an index of all food commodities, reached 126.4 points in October 2025, representing the second monthly decline in a row. On the other hand, the price indices for cereals, dairy products, meat, and sugar outweighed the increase in the vegetable oil index. According to analysis of the oilseed market, expected consumption growth exceeds supply growth, which may lead to a tightening of the market and pressure on oil prices.
Outlook for the next few months
We have a relatively good supply of cereals, and if the forecasts come true and the cereal harvest is record-breaking, cereal prices should remain relatively stable, which could ease the pressure on the growth of basic food prices. At least, unless something unforeseen happens. On the other hand, oilseeds, vegetable oils, processed foods, and meat products may remain sensitive to external factors such as weather, demand, transportation costs, or inputs, which may lead to higher volatility. For consumers, this means that even if basic cereals do not become significantly more expensive, the prices of products with a high content of oils, vegetable fats, or processed foods will be more likely to surprise us.
Practical takeaways
Based on October data, grains are among the relatively safe segments. This gives us hope that basic foods will remain more affordable. On the other hand, foods that depend on vegetable oils, fats, processed ingredients, or meat remain most exposed to possible price fluctuations. So, if you want to have a better overview of what is happening, keep an eye on food commodity prices. Information such as harvest, production, and global demand can be a good indicator of whether it is worth stocking up or being patient. The same applies to retail traders in the market. Seasonality works in markets, especially for food. Food markets are complex and interconnected. Drought in South America, the development of biofuels, demand for meat, and global stocks. All of these factors influence the prices we pay.
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