In a surprising development, Israel and Hamas have both agreed to the first phase of President Donald Trump’s 20-point peace framework in Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt, marking the most significant breakthrough in the two-year war that has massacred over 67,000 Palestinians and displaced more than two million Gaza residents. The ceasefire requires Hamas to release 20 Israeli hostages within days in exchange for over 1,000 Palestinian captives, while Israeli troops begin withdrawing from Gaza within 24 hours. The landmark deal followed three days of intense negotiations involving Qatar’s Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani, Trump’s envoy Steve Witkoff, and Jared Kushner. It marks the third ceasefire attempt since Hamas’s October 7, 2023 escalation that resulted in 1,200 Israelis dead and 251 hostages captured. Questions still remain with regard to Hamas’s disarmament, Gaza’s post-war governance, and the Palestinian statehood opposed by Netanyahu. Trump’s broader vision calls for a U.S.-led reconstruction plan, an Arab-Muslim security force, and a governing body cautiously welcomed by global leaders who continue to stress the need for a lasting two-state solution.
EQUITY
Tech stocks pushed the S&P 500 and Nasdaq higher, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average remained nearly flat, with returns coming from artificial intelligence-focused megacaps such as Nvidia and AMD. U.S.-listed gold miners cheered on the new milestone, while energy stocks lagged with a drop in home loan demand. The Federal Reserve's September meeting minutes revealed a divided committee, with most policymakers favouring further rate cuts, though timing remains vague.
GOLD
Gold hit another record high, a few dimes below $4,060 an ounce, in investors' quest for safety with U.S. government shutdown underway and weaker jobs data. The shutdown delayed economic reports and federal layoff reporting, while private surveys showed job growth slowing. Prices eased slightly on Thursday after a peace deal was announced between Israel and Hamas, but many traders still expect gold to keep rising.
OIL
Oil prices shrug off the Israel-Hamas ceasefire deal that should have eased geopolitical risk premiums. The announcement of a first-phase peace plan, brokered by Qatar and confirmed by Israeli and Hamas officials, could stabilise Red Sea shipping and revive Iranian crude exports, which act as a counterbalance. Lower levels in Cushing crude stocks and refined product inventories supported market sentiment, while demand for petroleum products hit its highest level since December 2022.
CURRENCY
The U.S. dollar is on track for its best week in nearly a year, supported by a weaker yen and euro due to political upheaval in Japan and France. The yen has fallen more than 3% this week after conservative Sanae Takaichi won Japan’s ruling party leadership; meanwhile, France’s political crisis took 1% away from the euro. A conjecture appears regarding the rising dollar value when the Fed’s September meeting minutes show it failed to shift market expectations toward a pause.
