EQUITIES

The equities market makes a mixed start on Monday to the new trading week. The Nikkei 225 in Japan pared earlier gains to trade 0.84% higher, while the Shanghai Composite in mainland China climbed around 0.5%. The S&P/ASX 200 in Australia advanced 1.11%, and the FTSE Straits Times Index in Singapore rose 0.86%.

Hong Kong and South Korea stocks meanwhile were down. The Hang Seng index was closed on Friday and slipped as much as 1.8% in early trade on Monday. It was last down 0.29%. South Korea’s KOSPI struggled for direction and was last down 0.22%.

Trading is likely to be limited today as the U.S. markets are closed for holiday. U.S. federal government offices, stock and bond markets and the U.S. Federal Reserve will be closed on Monday for the Independence Day holiday.

OIL

Oil prices were volatile on Monday, as investors outweigh fears of a global recession with concerns of tight supply amid lower OPEC output, unrest in Libya and sanctions on Russia.

Brent crude futures for September rose 0.10%, to $111.58 a barrel, after falling over $1 in early trade. U.S. WTI crude meanwhile slipped 0.18%, to $108.31 a barrel.

CURRENCIES

Demand for safe harbour has benefit the U.S. dollar, though early action was light with U.S. markets on holiday today. The U.S. dollar index stood at 105.092, not far below last month's two-decade high of 105.790.

GOLD

Gold prices edged lower on Monday as an elevated U.S. dollar hurt demand for greenback-priced bullion and outweighed support from weakening Treasury yields.

Spot gold was down 0.25% at $1,808.50 per ounce, having hit a six-month low of $1,783.50 last Friday. U.S. gold futures added 0.40% to $1,808.90.

Spot silver eased 0.2% to $19.82 per ounce, platinum fell 0.5% to $884.39, and palladium dropped 0.6% to $1,948.50.

ECONOMIC OUTLOOK

Global markets are settling in to trading in the second half of the year after the first half was dominated by concerns over inflation, the war in Ukraine and the potential for a global recession.

The markets started cautiously on Monday as a run of soft U.S. data suggested downside risks for this week's June payrolls report, due to be released later in the week. The payrolls report on Friday is forecast to show jobs growth slowing to 270,000 in June with average earnings slowing a touch to 5.0%.

Looking ahead, results from a private survey on China’s services activity is also due later this week, along with South Korean inflation data and several central bank decisions.

investors are also awaiting publication of minutes from last month's Federal Reserve meeting on Wednesday and U.S. employment data on Friday. Minutes of the Fed's June policy meeting on Wednesday are almost certain to sound hawkish, given the committee chose to hike rates by a super-sized 75 bps. The market is pricing in around an 85% chance of another hike of 75 basis points this month and rates at 3.25% to 3.5% by year end - before cuts in 2023.

U.S. earnings season starts of July 15 and expectations are being marked lower given high costs and softening data.