INTRADAY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS 29 JUNE (observation as of 07:20 UTC)


Important Levels to Watch for:

-        Resistance line of 1.06309 and 1.06832.

-        Support line of 1.04615 and 1.04092.

Commentary/ Reason:

  1. The euro dropped 0.25% to $1.04917 to the dollar on Wednesday, on top of 0.6% overnight.

  2. The euro weakened after European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde offered no fresh insight into the path of European interest rates at the ECB's annual forum.

  3. The ECB is widely expected to follow its global peers by raising interest rates in July for the first time in a decade to try to cool soaring inflation, though economists are divided on the magnitude of any hike.

  4. Higher T-note yields extend gain in the dollar the dollar along with expectations that end-of-month and quarter rebalancing flows also are seen as supporting the dollar.

  5. The EUR/USD pair is traded below 1.0550 level, which puts the price under more expected negative pressure in the upcoming period, on its way to head towards 1.0461 followed by 1.0409 as next negative targets.

  6. Moving below the EMA50 supports the expected decline, which will remain valid unless breaching 1.0630 and holding above it again.

  7. Lagarde and Fed chair Jerome Powell will speak on a panel at the forum later on Wednesday. German inflation figures also due later today, with French data on Thursday and eurozone numbers on Friday.




Important Levels to Watch for:

-        Resistance line of 0.96431 and 0.96853.

-        Support line of 0.95065 and 0.94643.

Commentary/ Reason:

  1. The dollar was flat against the Swiss franc on Wednesday, trading at 0.95667.

  2. The USD/CHF remains pressured, declining for the last two weeks and eyeing to refresh the two-month low.

  3. Moves were modest as traders try and navigate between relief that signs of weakness in recent global economic data can moderate rate hikes and worry that it could be a harbinger of the onset of a difficult period of stagflation.

  4. The weak spot against the Swiss franc has rocketed to test parity on the common currency following a surprise rate hike by the Swiss National Bank earlier in June.

  5. The USD/CHF pair continues to move inside the intraday bearish channel that appears on the chart, which supports the chances of surpassing the support levels.

  6. The bearish trend remains valid for the upcoming period unless breaching 0.9643 and hold above it.




Important Levels to Watch for Today:

-        Resistance line of 137.144 and 138.417.

-        Support line of 135.598 and 133.325.

Commentary/ Reason:                                        

  1. The dollar stood flat at 136.104, remain floated and not far from last week's 24-year high of 136.710

  2. The Japanese yen weakened today after managed to hold steady in the past few sessions.

  3. A risk-off mood impulse, usually a headwind for the major, backfired on the Japanese yen. The yen has struggled as the Bank of Japan keeps monetary policy loose even as other major banks tighten, a point reiterated by Governor Haruhiko Kuroda on Wednesday.

  4. A higher T-note yields also weighed on the yen.

  5. The USD/JPY pair rallied upwards to approach the recently recorded top at 136.710, to head towards regaining the main bullish trend and stop the bearish correction that dominated the recent trades. The USD/JPY needs to breach the mentioned top to open the way to achieve additional gains that reach 138.417.

  6. The EMA50 supports the expected rise for the upcoming period, taking into consideration that failing to achieve the required breach will press on the price to decline again and head towards 135.598 followed by 133.325 levels.




Important Levels to Watch for:

-        Resistance line of 1.24003 and 1.25543.

-        Support line of 1.20293 and 1.19383.

Commentary/ Reason:

  1. Sterling was unchanged at $1.21823.

  2. The British pound struggles for clear directions as it seesaws rangebound around two-week-long.

  3. The consolidation behaviour, however, could end later in the week, paving the way for a technical breakout amid several key high-impact events on the calendar, including a speech by Fed Chair Powell and BoE's Bailey at the ECB’s Sintra retreat.

  4. A reminder that at the most recent policy meeting, the BoE slightly toughened their forward guidance with regard to rate hikes, prompting markets to boost expectations of a 50bps rate rise.

  5. The GBP/USD pair leads the price to turn to decline on the intraday basis, targeting visiting 1.2029 initially. Bearish bias will be suggested for today.