War in Iran is pushing oil-driven inflation back into the United States housing market by keeping borrowing costs elevated, with the 10-year Treasury yield near 4.25% and average 30-year mortgage rates around 6.11% as buyers also absorb higher insurance and property-tax costs. Delinquencies are rising, especially in FHA loans, but the data still points to mounting pressure rather than systemic distress, with the Mortgage Bankers Association reporting a 4.26% delinquency rate while foreclosure starts remain stable at 0.20%. Foreclosure filings increased 20% year over year in February, yet ATTOM says overall activity remains far below historic crisis levels, suggesting no nationwide crash is underway. Major investors such as BlackRock and PIMCO are responding by favoring high-quality mortgage exposure and limiting rate sensitivity as volatility persists. The broader outlook remains one of a slow, uneven correction, where affordability weakens and regional stress builds, but tight supply still prevents a 2008-style collapse.
EQUITY
The broad index marked back-to-back session gains for the first time in three weeks as volatility subsided. Energy stocks tracked elevated crude oil prices, while airline and travel defied rising fuel costs with solid gains after Delta and American Airlines raised revenue guidance. Eli Lilly fell on HSBC downgrade, while private equity firms Blackstone and Apollo recovered from private credit concerns. Investors remain cautious ahead of the FOMC meeting on Wednesday, with no rate cut expected.
GOLD
The gold market is currently paralysed by a tug-of-war between geopolitical risk and a hawkish Fed outlook cap, both influenced by risk of inflation. Institutions are likely adopting a wait-and-see approach ahead of the Federal Reserve's policy statement and economic projections later today. Commerzbank notes that the Fed meeting itself is unlikely to provide a major impetus for gold unless there are significant surprises regarding the war's impact on economic forecasts.
OIL
Brent rebound past $103 as the risk premium has stayed elevated since the U.S.-Iran conflict began three weeks ago. Continued attacks on energy infrastructure by both sides risk supply runaways, while the Strait of Hormuz remains militarised. In response, the International Energy Agency executed its largest-ever emergency release, with 100 million barrels heading to Asia this week as part of a 400 million barrel plan, though IEA Chief Fatih Birol confirmed over 1.4 billion barrels remain available for future releases.
CURRENCY
The currency market is balancing risk-on equity flows against safe-haven demand. While the dollar dropped on weak labour data and stock rallies, the underlying trend remains supportive of the greenback due to the Middle East crisis, sticky inflation, and a Federal Reserve rate cut pushback. The divergence between the Fed and other majors like the ECB/BOJ remains a critical crossroad for FX volatility.
