INTRADAY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS 24 JUNE (observation as of 05:15 UTC)
[EURUSD]
Important Levels to Watch for:
- Resistance line of 1.19737 and 1.19967.
- Support line of 1.18994 and 1.18765.
Commentary/ Reason:
The euro was little changed at $1.19249 on Thursday compared to the previous session, when it rose as high as $1.19699 for the first time in a week. It had dipped to the lowest since April 6 on Friday, at $1.18474.
Comments on Wednesday from ECB Vice President Guindos were supportive for the euro when he said he expects "very significant growth in the Eurozone" in the second half of the year.
Dollar meanwhile shook off early losses after hawkish Fed comments on Wednesday supported the dollar. The dollar was initially under pressure on negative carry-over from Tuesday when Fed Chair Powell downplayed inflation risks, which bolstered speculation that the Fed is in no hurry to taper QE.
Higher T-note yields on Thursday were positive for the dollar, with the 10-year T-note yield climbing edged higher.
The EUR/USD has found support at the 1.184 price level with the pair moving back towards the range high at the 1.197 price line. Buyers’ conviction will be tested given that fundamental factors favour bears.
[USDCHF]
Important Levels to Watch for:
- Resistance line of 0.92085 and 0.92283.
- Support line of 0.91442 and 0.91243.
Commentary/ Reason:
The dollar traded 0.15% higher against the Swiss franc on Thursday, at 0.91936.
The dollar is alternating between losses and gains and trade rangebound in the several recent sessions as investors digested elevated U.S. inflation after hawkish Fed comments on Wednesday that supported the dollar, against Fed Chair Powell which downplayed inflation risks.
However, the dollar appears to be holding up quite well, supported by the strength in T-note yields today.
The dynamics around the U.S. dollar expected to continue to influence the pair’s performance for the time being.
[GBPUSD]
Important Levels to Watch for:
- Resistance line of 1.40122 and 1.40423.
- Support line of 1.39145 and 1.38843.
Commentary/ Reason:
The British pound was steady at $1.39596.
In Britain, growth in the private sector cooled slightly from the all-time high hit in May, but inflation pressures faced by firms hit record levels. The Bank of England is expected to acknowledge the strength of inflationary pressures in recent data when it meets later in the day.
The BoE may be forced to act next due to inflation data. Britain’s top central bank officials look set to remain divided this week over whether to pull the plug on their 875 billion-pound ($1.2 trillion) government bond purchase programme, after inflation hit its highest in nearly two years.
The GBP/USD pair has stalled rangebound between the 1.380 and 1.40 price levels. Buying pressure remains, yet conviction isn’t currently strong enough to resume the rally. Sellers are still active, which suggest that the pair may continue to consolidate within the current range in the near-term.
