INTRADAY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS APRIL 06TH (observation as of 08:48 UTC)
[EURUSD]
Important Levels to Watch for:
- Resistance line of 1.0926
- Support line of 1.0883
Commentary/ Reason:
1. The price moved in an uptrend since 3rd of April, facing volatility along the way resisted by 1.0926 price level but eventually reached 1.0973 price level before facing selloff.
2. The pair now retraced to about 50% of the total gain and rebounded at support of 1.0883 but still waiting for buyer in a mini downtrend.
3. UK Construction PMI and US initial jobless claims is some of Macroeconomic data to be watched. Construction PMI recently weakened and expected to be lower while initial jobless claim expected to report higher as private sectors payroll reported lower yesterday.
4. The price is expected to move in parallel downward and retested the support level before having any potential of moving upward. However, if price break the support, expect the price to go lower.
5. If the price break resistance level at 1.091, the price movement could be considered as uptrend where the price will explode upward once it break into liquidity zone.
[USDCHF]
Important Levels to Watch for:
- Resistance line of 0.9072
- Support line of 0.9028
Commentary/ Reason:
1. The price have been in strong downtrend since 3rd April with some volatility pause that continued the day after and saw a spike downward at 5th April before recovering to 50% of the price movement.
2. The price is now subdued in short range between 0.906 and resistance 0.9072 as it’s a significant support level that goes back months.
3. Swiss central bank raised rates back in March that strengthen the currency against USD, while US reported multiple weakening macro data including employment.
4. The price is expected to dive below once US initial jobless data are out with support at 0.9028 and 0.9005, its previous low.
5. If the price break above its resistance at 0.9072, there is reason to believe that he price will be higher and eventually break past resistance 0.9099.
[USDJPY]
Important Levels to Watch for:
- Resistance line of 131.889
- Support line of 130.410
Commentary/ Reason:
1. The pair were previously in steady uptrend but due to macro headwinds, stumble just like other pairs.
2. The price consolidated in a reverse triangle pattern before reaching low of 130.647, just a shy above strong low of 130.410 before recovering some of its losses.
3. Manufacturing data from Japan shows lower confidence in the sector, but were offset by weakness in USD that cause uncertainty in the price direction.
4. The price is expected to retrace to 50% of Fibonacci retracement level at resistance 131.889 before continue its downtrend to either support level 130.410 or 129.643.
5. The price could break above the resistance however, but still expected to rebound at resistance 132.214 before diving lower.
[GBPUSD]
Important Levels to Watch for:
- Resistance line of 1.2486
- Support line of 1.2437
Commentary/ Reason:
1. The pair have been on strong uptrend since March, but the price has break out of parallel channel bound and retraced back into the channel.
2. The movement is probably affected by macro headwinds that pushed GBP higher as USD weakened but condition for USD have improved.
3. Although macro data reported UK manufacturing PMI lower, but it is only slight lower than USD ISM Manufacturing that saw dollar weakening.
4. The price is expected to retreat lower at 1.2437 and break below to support 1.2394 before it can gather enough momentum to continue its upward trend. Lower construction PMI could also be the reason for GBP to weaken against USD.
5. Fibonacci retracement saw a potential continuation at 50% for early April rally where USD weakened and the price has already seen 50% retracement from peak at 1.2525.
