INTRADAY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS 13 AUGUST (observation as of 05:45 UTC)
[EURUSD]
Important Levels to Watch for:
- Resistance line of 1.17515 and 1.17878.
- Support line of 1.17089 and 1.16826.
Commentary/ Reason:
The euro eased slightly to $1.17379 on Friday, and on course for a second straight week of losses and staying not far from the four-month low of $1.1706 hit on Wednesday.
The dollar was on modest gains due to strength in U.S. economic data on weekly jobless claims and hawkish July PPI report. Higher T-note yields on Thursday also supported gains in the dollar. Several Fed officials this week meanwhile came out in support of tapering bond buying in coming months, setting themselves apart from the more dovish major central banks such as the European Central Bank.
However, weighing in the dollar was the rally in the S&P 500 and the Dow that rose to a new record high, which means reduced the liquidity demand for the dollar.
The euro meanwhile was under pressure on weaker-than-expected Eurozone economic data after Eurozone Jun industrial production fell -0.3% m/m, slightly weaker than expectations of -0.2% m/m.
The EUR/USD is trying to break away and making moves away from the recent price low at the 1.170 support level. The next test therefore will be the 1.175 resistance level, which represents the lower bound of a previous trading range.
[USDCHF]
Important Levels to Watch for:
- Resistance line of 0.92470 and 0.92603.
- Support line of 0.92037 and 0.91903.
Commentary/ Reason:
The dollar against the Swiss franc was little changed for the day, stood at 0.92322, and heading for second weekly gain.
The currency pair keeps developing a correction to 0.9203. The USDCHF pair however shows positive trades that gradually approach on our first waited target at 0.924, getting positive support of breaching and head towards 0.926 as a next positive target. Therefore, we will continue to suggest the bullish trend unless breaking 0.919 and holding below it.
[GBPUSD]
Important Levels to Watch for:
- Resistance line of 1.39123 and 1.39973.
- Support line of 1.37423 and 1.36573.
Commentary/ Reason:
Sterling was on the defensive at $1.38105 after hitting a 2-week low of $1.3794 in the previous session, drawing little help from slightly stronger-than-expected GDP estimate for June.
Britain's economy grew by a faster-than-expected 1% in June and by 4.8% year-on-year in Q2. The food and beverage services sector meanwhile surged more than 10% as the economy continued to reopen. These figures slightly knock fears over the impact of the Delta variant.
The greenback also gained momentum after the release of U.S. economic data. Inflation data came in above expectations, with the IPP reading for July and jobless claims dropped in line with expectations.
From a technical perspective, the outlook for GBP/USD favours the downside for the moment. The pair is testing the 20-day moving average. A daily close under 1.374 would favour an extension of current down move. Although the pair will begin to make another attempt at the 1.391 resistance level as buyers have returned mid-range. The change in sentiment marks the start of another rally attempt.
