INTRADAY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS 15 NOVEMBER (observation as of 06:15 UTC)
[EURUSD]
Important Levels to Watch for:
- Resistance line of 1.15054 and 1.15521.
- Support line of 1.14120 and 1.13653.
Commentary/ Reason:
The euro added 0.11% to $1.14560, but still within sight of Friday's 16-month low of $1.14331 having broken decisively lower last week.
The dollar gave up its advance after a rally in stocks on Monday reduced liquidity demand for the dollar. The dollar also eased on cautious that investors assessed if rising inflation would prompt a more aggressive response by central banks.
The euro meanwhile stays under pressure on concern of worsening pandemic situation in Germany will lead to pandemic restrictions that curb economic activity and growth. New infections in Germany jumped more than 50,000 on Thursday to a record, and Bavaria declared the latest wave a “disaster situation.”
The EUR/USD has stalled around the 1.145 as the pair attempts to make a recovery. Bullish conviction remains weak as the pair has struggled to form a recovery rally. Price action will continue to float sideways in the absence of major fundamental news.
Later today, ECB president Christine Lagarde will speak before the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs of the European Parliament.
[USDCHF]
Important Levels to Watch for:
- Resistance line of 0.92354 and 0.92555.
- Support line of 0.91705 and 0.91505.
Commentary/ Reason:
The dollar retreated off its one-week high recorded Friday, slipped 0.15% to trade at 0.91968 on Monday.
The franc gains, as investors see the currency as a safe haven investment amid market uncertainties due to rising COVID-19 cases in Europe.
The USD/CHF pair has failed at the 0.923 resistance level last Friday. Today’ trading will determine near-term direction for the pair and whether sellers have the appetite to drive a reversal. This resistance zone has proven to be an obstacle in the past for buyers, therefore strong conviction will be required to break the current trading range.
[USDJPY]
Important Levels to Watch for Today:
- Resistance line of 114.371 and 114.748.
- Support line of 113.617 and 113.240.
Commentary/ Reason:
The dollar was holding at 113.826 yen, consolidating around the mark since Wednesday.
The yen recovered from a 1-1/2-week low Friday and moved higher following a surprise from Japan's Q3 GDP figures, and after the Nikkei newspaper reported that the Japanese government plans to implement an economic stimulus package of more than 40 trillion yen ($350 billion) in fiscal measures as Prime Minister Kishida looks to revive Japan’s sputtering economy.
The USD/JPY is still unable to move beyond a recent price high at the 114.37 price level. Small-bodied candles have once again accumulated just below the resistance line reflecting a lack of conviction from both buyers and sellers. The current consolidation channel is likely to remain intact.
Aside from economic data, investors will also be watching any comments coming out of a virtual summit between Chinese leader Xi Jinping and U.S. President Joe Biden on Monday. It is intended to halt, or at least slowdown, the downward spiral in US-Chinese relations.
[GBPUSD]
Important Levels to Watch for:
- Resistance line of 1.34610 and 1.35370.
- Support line of 1.33090 and 1.32330.
Commentary/ Reason:
Sterling rose 0.15% to $1.34339, continuing a recovery from this year's low of $1.3354, marked on Friday.
The GBP/USD pair is making its way back to a previous trading range with the lower bound at the 1.346 price level. Bullish rebounds have typically taken place at this pivot point, yet currently, bullish conviction appears low. Momentum indicators are making a recovery from oversold conditions.
The British pound however, remains pressured after Britain and the European Union still looked far from finding a post-Brexit agreement over Northern Ireland.
