The job market continues to deteriorate, with unemployment in the states rising to 4.4% in September 2025 and tech layoffs hitting their worst levels since 2009, whilst AI-induced cuts push more than 112,000 workers out of jobs. China’s picture is even darker, with youth unemployment stuck at 17.3% and millions turning to fake work offices or dropping out of the labour force as the economy fails to absorb 12.2 million new graduates each year. Globally, the unemployment rate may look stable at 5%, but the ILO notes deep structural issues, including stagnant productivity, widespread informality, and 240 million workers trapped in extreme working poverty. The root of the crisis is a convergence of rapid automation, weak productivity growth, and stalled structural transformation that is failing to create enough quality jobs. Conditions are likely to worsen through 2026 as AI adoption speeds up, supply chains fragment, and debt pressures force austerity. Without coordinated global action and large-scale investment in reskilling, infrastructure, and inclusive industrial policy, unemployment could climb above 5.5% and youth joblessness beyond 13.5%.

EQUITY

Stock kicked off the year-end month lower, ending a five-day rally as rising Treasury yields and manufacturing mark a ninth consecutive month of contraction in the ISM index. The yield surge pressured bond-proxy sectors like real estate and utilities, while crypto-related equities fell along with Bitcoin falling to a low of 7.3% and Strategy Inc.'s earnings forecast cut. Energy stocks led due to rising oil prices, and retailers like Walmart and Target edged higher on Cyber Monday shopping.

GOLD

Gold climbed to a six-week high on safe-haven demand from Japan bond market concerns and bullish technicals but retreated shortly after, potentially due to profit-taking. Markets now price an 87% chance of a Fed rate cut next week, with weak U.S. manufacturing data leading to dovish rhetoric amplified by the central bank's leadership transition. A weaker dollar and falling Treasury yields further supported gold's underlying strength.

OIL

Brent crude held steady near $63.30 after gaining 1.6% on supply concerns stemming from Ukrainian attacks damaging the Caspian Pipeline Consortium's Black Sea terminal. Escalating tension between U.S. and Venezuela following Donald Trump's airspace closure warning could also hurt supply from the largest oil reserve. Concurrently, OPEC+ reaffirmed its decision to maintain current production levels into early 2026, while geopolitical risks provided near-term price support.

CURRENCY

The dollar held near a two-week low, probably due to weak U.S. manufacturing data, which added to the odds of a 25 basis point Fed rate cut next week. The yen rebounded slightly after a solid Japanese bond auction calmed global markets while a BoJ hike is expected. China's yuan pulled back from a 14-month peak as the PBOC deliberately weakened its daily fixing to mitigate rapid gains. All eyes now shift to Fed Chair Powell's speech for further policy direction.