INTRADAY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS 30 JULY (observation as of 05:10 UTC)
[EURUSD]
Important Levels to Watch for:
- Resistance line of 1.19088 and 1.19299.
- Support line of 1.18403 and 1.18191.
Commentary/ Reason:
A sluggish dollar hoisted the euro up 0.30% of the last two days.
The euro held at $1.18787 on Friday, eased slightly after touched its highest in more than 3 weeks earlier today. The major currency pair marked a 4-day uptrend the previous day when poking the monthly high marked on July 06.
The dollar languished as the Fed appears nowhere near rates tapering as the economy slowly makes its way to achieving substantial progress in the labour market. Losses in the dollar also accelerated on weaker-than-expected U.S. economic data that was dovish for Fed policy.
However, the risk-off mood put a safe-haven bid under the U.S. dollar and triggered rebound. The dollar still has safe-haven support from concern the worldwide spread of the Delta variant will crimp the global economic recovery.
On other hand, any disappointment in the readings of German and Eurozone Q2 GDP later today should offer weakness to the EUR/USD. However, U.S. data and risk catalysts become more important to follow for fresh impulse.
Focus remains on 1.190 resistance in EUR/USD. The pair might witness temporary bearish bias affected by stochastic negativity before attempting to breach and achieve more gains on the intraday and short-term basis. On the downside, break of 1.184 will put the pair back into the consolidation earlier in the week.
[USDCHF]
Important Levels to Watch for:
- Resistance line of 0.91025 and 0.91238.
- Support line of 0.90334 and 0.90120.
Commentary/ Reason:
The dollar traded slightly higher against the Swiss franc, rose 0.07% to 0.90677, but headed for around 1.4% loss for the week.
The greenback remained sideways over the U.S. weaker-than-expected economic data. While the dollar managed to regain some grounds, trading remained sideways as the U.S. GDP data came in below expectations.
USD/CHF is accumulating on the downside following the Fed’s dovish tilt which weighed on the greenback. USD/CHF’s fall is still in progress and intraday bias remains on the downside. Next target is 0.903 low. On the upside, above 0.910 support turned resistance will mix up the near-term outlook and turn intraday bias neutral first.
[GBPUSD]
Important Levels to Watch for:
- Resistance line of 1.40001 and 1.40330.
- Support line of 1.38939 and 1.38610.
Commentary/ Reason:
Sterling eased back around its opening on Friday, to trade at $1.39476.
The U.S. dollar's broad weaker tone and a fall in coronavirus cases in Britain helped lift the British pound around 1.5% gains for the week, and to its highest in over a month on Thursday.
While British infection numbers ticked higher on Wednesday, but the rolling averages are heading lower - though experts, and Prime Minister Boris Johnson, have cautioned that it is too early to draw conclusions.
Sterling has been riding higher with re-opening optimism. Traders have been encouraged by early signs that England's end to most COVID restrictions last week has not been a disaster.
GBP/USD’s rise since 1.357 is still in progress and intraday bias stays on the upside. Sellers have returned which has stalled the would-be rally. Further rise should be seen to retest 1.400 high next. On the downside, below 1.389 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral and bring retreat first, before possibly staging another rally.
