INTRADAY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS August 23rd (observation as of 08:00 UTC)
[EURUSD]
Important Levels to Watch for:
- Resistance line of 1.08436
- Support line of 1.08052
Commentary/ Reason:
1. The price have been in a strong classic downtrend with a little rebound at only 38.2% of its previous price action signifying strong movement that is almost at completion of this pattern.
2. Dollar have been strengthening on resilient US economy and European falling on gloomy PMI data as traders bet on September ECB rate pause while Fed Chair Powell is determined to fight inflation.
3. There is none significant economic data coming from Europe while US is expecting a fairly significant economic condition data such as US durable goods and initial jobless claims while there is an upcoming speech from Fed Chair Powell at Jackson Hole Gathering.
4. The price is expected to recover as it has fallen by more than 1% from peak at 1.09295 and supported by longer term support at 1.08052 and long term price channel trough.
5. Technical indicators are turning to neutral while majority of it are pushing sell signals while all moving average sits comfortably at sell as the price fell significantly.
[USDCHF]
Important Levels to Watch for:
- Resistance line of 0.88070
- Support line of 0.87839
Commentary/ Reason:
1. The pair have been moving in a steady downtrend in a predictable price channel before breaking above as the dollar strengthen and currently fighting its place in a more volatile and random price action but remain stuck below a significant resistance level.
2. The price was mostly influenced by strength in US economy resilience as slurry of economic data show only slight contraction while the Swiss are worried that the worsening bond market will victimize another one of its bank after UBS collapse few months back.
3. There is none significant economic data coming from the Swiss while US is expecting a fairly significant economic condition data such as US durable goods and initial jobless claims while there is an upcoming speech from Fed Chair Powell at Jackson Hole Gathering.
4. The price has already limited by support at 0.88093 and 0.88141 but the lows are getting lower which suggest that it needs a clearer catalyst as to either the strengthening of USD or Swiss Franc.
5. Technical indicators are mostly neutral while all moving averages are also buy as a result from strong uptrend push in a short period of time.
[USDJPY]
Important Levels to Watch for:
- Resistance line of 145.512
- Support line of 145.202
Commentary/ Reason:
1. The Japanese yen has been weakening from late July and only recently steadying into a longer term double top hence the downtrend price action in the highlighted price channel.
2. Trader are watching closely to any intervention by Bank of Japan as fund houses expect the yen would not reach above 150 per dollar without the BoJ putting its hand to control their currency, especially after its aggressive bond buying programme recently.
3. There is Tokyo CPI coming from Japan while US is expecting a fairly significant economic condition data such as US durable goods and initial jobless claims while there is an upcoming speech from Fed Chair Powell at Jackson Hole Gathering.
4. The price is expected to continue to decline to at least 145.202 or even lower at 144.874 if there is no invisible hand playing with the fragile yen.
5. Technical indicators are mostly pushing selling signals after it drops in recent days as well as moving averages.
[GBPUSD]
Important Levels to Watch for:
- Resistance line of 1.26661
- Support line of 1.26156
Commentary/ Reason:
1. The pair have been moving classic downtrend pattern, rebounding to around 50% of its previous price action which is a stronger rebound but the price dipped in a short amount of time due to weak economic data from the UK.
2. Sterling dropped after provisional UK PMI in manufacturing and services sector showed significant contraction as it suggest that rates will soon peak and Bank of England would not be able to tighten without additional pain.
3. There is none significant economic data coming from the UK while US is expecting a fairly significant economic condition data such as US durable goods and initial jobless claims while there is an upcoming speech from Fed Chair Powell at Jackson Hole Gathering.
4. The price is expected to continue decline as resilient US economy and inability for BoE to tighten will continue to put pressure on sterling while there is possibility that traders will take profits at support 1.26156.
5. Technical indicator is certain with sell while some are already oversold while moving averages all blaring with sell as the price depreciated in a flash.
