The meeting is adjourned! The China Politburo meeting, a meeting of 24 top decision-making bodies members, has signalled a supportive tilt towards commodities and property but no bazooka-style stimulus, eliciting a lukewarm market response. The incremental approach was unsurprising, but concrete easing is still needed to boost demand. President Xi discouraging property speculation points to a shift towards market support, yet details on relieving local debt to spur infrastructure remain pending. While the statements acknowledge more policy loosening is required to steady growth, the lack of specifics prompts doubts over the authorities' capacity and ability to swiftly energise the economy and commodities market.
EQUITY
The Dow notched its longest winning streak in six years as investors bet on non-tech sectors ahead of major earnings and a Fed meeting expected to deliver the last rate hike of the tightening cycle. Big tech earnings from Microsoft, Google, and Meta this week will determine whether stocks justify high valuations. The Chinese market jumped on top officials reassuring comments on stimulus.
GOLD
Gold prices treaded water in the Asian trading session as investors were wary of the upcoming FOMC and closely monitored the future path of tightening. Slowing business activity in the U.S. and Europe suggests central banks may be approaching the end of their rate hike cycles. Although China's stimulus could prop up the price, its overextended debt may hurt that expectation.
OIL
Oil prices edged higher, hovering near three-month highs after OPEC+ and Russian cuts took effect, while expectations for more Chinese economic stimulus offset uncertainty about demand ahead of an anticipated Fed interest rate hike, which could dampen oil demand. Saudi Arabia cut oil production to 7.5 million bpd, a decade low export for the oil-rich country.
CURRENCY
The dollar stumbled, giving up gains from the previous session as weaker U.S. data spurred bets that the Fed may have limited room left to raise interest rates further. The yuan led Asian currency gains with a 0.4% gain, aided by stronger support from China's central bank and stimulus talk from Beijing. Although the market may already have priced in the 25-bps hike, it would set precedent for the next meeting in September.
