The wheels are turning for a seismic shift in global power dynamics at the 2-day G20 summit in India next week. With China's and Russia's influence waning, India is poised to assert itself as an economic juggernaut and champion of the developing world. However, tensions simmer with China over border disputes, while doubts linger over India's reluctance to condemn Russia. Yet India's massive growth presents lucrative opportunities, as evidenced by its ballooning aviation sector and trailblazing private space industry. As the G20 host, India aims to spearhead reforms in green energy and digital innovation while attracting foreign investment. But executing these ambitions requires deft geopolitical manoeuvring to align both emerging and advanced economies. Ultimately, the summit will gauge whether multipolar cooperation can prevail over bipolar confrontation.
Huawei recently unveiled a new phone powered by a 7nm chip made by SMIC, highlighting China's rapid advances in semiconductor manufacturing capabilities. The Dow and S&P index closed lower in the futures market amid Labour day. Turkey and Russia discussed potentially reviving the Ukraine grain deal, but differences remain over easing restrictions on Russian exports.
Gold prices held steady on Tuesday as investors awaited more economic data ahead of the Fed's September meeting to confirm expectations that interest rate hikes may be paused, though a stronger dollar limited gains for the zero-yield metal, which remains supported by easing inflation and growth concerns.
Oil prices were mixed on Tuesday as support from expected supply cuts by OPEC+ members Saudi Arabia and Russia was offset by concerns about weak demand from top importer China, though optimism that the Fed may pause rate hikes limited losses. Price action suggests that it may pullback soon, although the price may be eyeing $90 if the G20 suggests more economic stimulus.
The US dollar treaded water on Tuesday as investors waited for clues on whether peak hawkishness has passed for major central banks, while the Australian dollar retreated after the RBA decided to pause rates amid mounting evidence of slowing growth. The yuan weakened after disappointing service sector data reinforced concerns about sluggish demand despite recent measures.