INTRADAY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS 1 APRIL (observation as of 07:50 UTC)

[EURUSD]

Important Levels to Watch for:

-        Resistance line of 1.11833 and 1.12314.

-        Support line of 1.10277 and 1.09796.

Commentary/ Reason:

  1. The euro was down 0.10% at $1.10564, following its 0.82% sharp retreat the previous session from a one-month high of $1.11845.

  2. Even so, the pair is on course for a 0.77% weekly advance, having been boosted earlier in the week by hopes for peace in Ukraine.

  3. The dollar garnered support on Friday due to its status as a preeminent safe haven, with peace talks between Russia and Ukraine stumbling, though they are set to resume later.

  4. The EUR/USD pair couldn’t manage to hold at the resistance line 1.1183, to trade with clear negativity and return to the bearish track again, on its way to test the bullish channel’s support line at 1.1027 and 1.0979.

  5. The dollar can edge higher Friday as traders awaited the release of the widely watched U.S. monthly jobs report, which could help the Federal Reserve decide upon a more aggressive rate tightening cycle.

EURUSD

 

[USDCHF]

Important Levels to Watch for:

-        Resistance line of 0.91912 and 0.91532.

-        Support line of 0.93144 and 0.93524.

Commentary/ Reason:

  1. The dollar rose slightly against the Swiss franc on Friday and was last bought 0.92341, trying to claw back off the 3-week low recorded overnight.

  2. The pair, however, is still headed for 0.90% weekly loss.

  3. The greenback supported today, with investors looking toward U.S. jobs report for insight into the possible path of monetary policy by the U.S. central bank.

  4. Headlines that Russia-Ukraine negotiations progressed, and the possibility of a Putin-Zelenskiy reunion, meanwhile improved the market mood; chased traders out from dollars which lifted the support prospects of the Swiss franc.

  5. The USD/CHF pair to head towards testing 0.9314 level that forms key resistance now, accompanied by stochastic loss to the positive momentum clearly, waiting to open the way to rally towards 0.9153 as a next main station.

USDCHF

 

[USDJPY]

Important Levels to Watch for Today:

-        Resistance line of 123.986 and 125.833.

-        Support line of 120.292 and 118.445.

Commentary/ Reason:                                        

  1. The dollar rose 0.70% to 122.519 yen, its first gain in four days as the currency pair tracked moves in long-term U.S. Treasury yields. The pair however, still headed for about 0.30% losses for the week.

  2. The widening differential between a hawkish U.S. and dovish Japanese yields remains the main cause making yen to weaken. Higher commodity prices also have been a factor weighing on the Japanese yen - as Japan is a net importer of energy.

  3. The U.S. dollar regains ground after the yen fell to its lowest since 2015 on Monday on expectations that the Bank of Japan would be markedly more dovish than the Fed, as the BoJ announced to buy an unlimited amount of 10-year government bonds for four days this week to keep yields low. Rising U.S. yields have lifted Japanese yields even though inflation in Japan is below the central bank's target.

  4. The USD/JPY pair is oscillating in a narrow range of the previous two trading sessions after recording a steep fall from March 25 high at 125.10.

  5. The dollar also remains supported ahead of a key U.S. jobs report that could cement the potential for a 50 basis-point Federal Reserve interest rate hike next month.

USDJPY

 

[GBPUSD]

Important Levels to Watch for:

-        Resistance line of 1.32133 and 1.32853.

-        Support line of 1.30693 and 1.29973.

Commentary/ Reason:

  1. Sterling slipped slightly to $1.31272 on Friday, bringing its loss for the week to 0.33%.

  2. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine continues to hold significant sway over how traders think the Bank of England will proceed in the coming months. Rate hike odds have increased meaningfully for the BoE in recent weeks, with hikes expected at each meeting from May through November.

  3. UK has recently released the final reading of the Q4 GDP Growth Rate report, indicated that GDP increased by 1.3% quarter-over-quarter, compared to analyst consensus of 1%.

  4. The expectation of a hawkish U.S. Fed meanwhile lend support for the dollar as the T-note yields remains high.

  5. Sideway consolidation continues in GBP/USD and intraday bias remains neutral. Outlook remains bearish with 1.3212 resistance intact, with further decline is expected. On the downside, break of 1.3070 low will resume larger down trend. However, firm break of 1.3213 will turn bias back to the upside for stronger rebound.

GBPUSD