INTRADAY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS 15 JULY (observation as of 08:25 UTC)


Important Levels to Watch for:

-        Resistance line of 1.01099 and 1.01836.

-        Support line of 0.99625 and 0.98888.

Commentary/ Reason:

  1. The euro was flat at $1.00298, after bouncing back from below parity on Thursday for a second day. It was heading for 1.6% slid for the week.

  2. The single currency dipped as low as $0.99522 overnight after Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi offered to resign, but that was rejected by the country's president. The greenback also supported on the back of the release of PPI data that measures inflation from a business perspective.

  3. The eurozone is also struggling with a worsening energy crisis as Russia shut down a gas pipeline for regular week-long maintenance, leaving markets jittery about whether it will come back online, with Russia saying it will depend on demand and sanctions.

  4. Despite the uncertainty, the ECB is likely to stick the quarter-point rate increase it has flagged for next week, but the outlook trails well behind the Fed, supporting the dollar's strength versus the euro.

  5. The EUR/USD pair traded sideways, with stochastic loses its positive momentum clearly, while the EMA50 keeps pressing negatively on the price. Bearish trend is suggested for the upcoming period unless breaching 1.0109 and holding above it, with the next main target is located at 0.9962.

  6. U.S. retail sales data will be closely watched data point on Friday.




Important Levels to Watch for:

-        Resistance line of 0.98809 and 0.99357.

-        Support line of 0.97713 and 0.97165.

Commentary/ Reason:

  1. The dollar slipped 0.20% to trade at 0.98072 franc on Friday, though still heading for 0.67% weekly gains.

  2. The Swiss franc rebounded from higher against the U.S. dollar as slightly cheaper prices prompted some investors to return to the safe haven currency.

  3. The greenback still on a positive tone, supported by the release of U.S. CPI and PPI data which came in above expectations, making room for more severe measures by the U.S. Federal Reserve, which is likely to accelerate its interest rate hikes.

  4. The USD/CHF pair attempted to breach 0.9771 level though finds solid support there, attempting to gather the required positive momentum to push the price to breach and extending bullish wave towards 0.9880.

  5. Bullish trend scenario will remain active for the upcoming period unless breaking 0. 9771 and holding below it.




Important Levels to Watch for Today:

-        Resistance line of 139.834 and 140.620.

-        Support line of 137.293 and 136.508.

Commentary/ Reason:                                        

  1. Against the yen, the dollar eased 0.09% on Friday to 138.816 but was up 2.17% for the week and touched 139.387 overnight for the first time since September 1998 as U.S. Treasury yields widened the gap to their Japanese counterparts.

  2. The Bank of Japan has been steadfast in its commitment to ultra-easy policy to support the economy and is widely seen keeping stimulus settings steady at a meeting next week.

  3. Safe haven dollar also remained supported as higher-than-expected U.S. inflation stoked fears that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates even more aggressively to slow price increases.

  4. The USD/JPY pair rallied as it approaches 139.843, to support the continuation of the bullish wave on the short term and medium term basis, organized inside the bullish channels that appear on the chart, waiting for more rise to visit 140.620 barrier as a next main station.

  5. The continuation of the bullish trend domination in the upcoming sessions is expected, noting that breaking 137.293 might press on the price to achieve some intraday bearish correction before turning back to rise again.




Important Levels to Watch for:

-        Resistance line of 1.19812 and 1.20343.

-        Support line of 1.18094 and 1.17563.

Commentary/ Reason:

  1. Sterling edged 0.05% higher to $1.18285, after slumping to a 28-month low of $1.17604 overnight. It is down 1.60% since last Friday, heading for its worst week since early May as political turmoil casts a shadow over the currency.

  2. More investors also shifted towards safe havens due to the cautious global economic outlook.