INTRADAY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS 18 JULY (observation as of 08:00 UTC)


Important Levels to Watch for:

-        Resistance line of 1.01099 and 1.01836.

-        Support line of 0.99625 and 0.98888.

Commentary/ Reason:

  1. The euro was steadier at $1.01097, after bouncing from a two-decade trough of $0.99522 last week.

  2. The dollar nudged down, though fears about Europe's gas supply put a cap on dollar selling.

  3. Traders are holding their breath ahead of Thursday, when gas is supposed to resume flowing through the Nord Stream pipe from Russia to Germany after a shutdown for scheduled maintenance.

  4. The uncertainty is overshadowing a ECB meeting, also due on Thursday, where policymakers are expected to begin Europe's hiking cycle with a 25 bps increase.

  5. Adding to headwinds for the eurozone is a political crisis in Italy, after Prime Minister Mario Draghi tendered his resignation last week.

  6. The EUR/USD pair bounced bullishly, heads towards achieving some bullish correction and achieve some expected intraday gains in the upcoming sessions, targeting 1.0109 followed by 1.0183 levels as next main stations. Failing to surpass 1. 0109 will stop the positive scenario and press on the price to decline again.




Important Levels to Watch for:

-        Resistance line of 0.98370 and 0.98712.

-        Support line of 0.97264 and 0.96922.

Commentary/ Reason:

  1. The dollar was down slightly against the Swiss franc on Monday, dropped 0.07% to trade at 0.97519 franc.

  2. The Swiss franc rebounded higher against the U.S. dollar as slightly cheaper prices prompted some investors to return to the safe haven currency.

  3. The Swiss franc standing out as a safe-haven currency as traders awaited on more economic data and central banks decision later this week.

  4. The USD/CHF pair to reach 0.9726, and open the way to provide more negative trades in the upcoming sessions, to head towards visiting 0.9692 areas as a next main station.




Important Levels to Watch for Today:

-        Resistance line of 139.834 and 140.620.

-        Support line of 137.293 and 136.508.

Commentary/ Reason:                                        

  1. The dollar was softer at 138.061 yen, having climbed 1.8% last week to a 24-year peak of 139.38.

  2. Markets are keenly watching the Bank of Japan's central bank meeting on Thursday. Though no changes are expected from the BoJ, which is expected to maintain its ultra-easy policies, meaning more pain for the beleaguered yen.

  3. The Bank of Japan holds its policy meeting amid concerns the breakneck drop in the yen is adding to the cost of imported commodities and widening the country's trade deficit.

  4. The USD/JPY pair shows negative trades to approach the bullish channel’s support line that appears on the chart, noticing that stochastic got rid of its negativity to reach the oversold areas, while the EMA50 keeps providing the positive support to the price.

  5. Overall bullish trend is still suggested, which its next main targets located at 139.834  followed by 140.60, noting that the continuation of the bearish bias and breaking 137.293 to press on the price to turn to decline.




Important Levels to Watch for:

-        Resistance line of 1.19812 and 1.20343.

-        Support line of 1.18094 and 1.17563.

Commentary/ Reason:

  1. The GBP/USD remains on the front foot for the second consecutive day, renews intraday high of late.

  2. It edged 0.65% higher to $1.19440, after slumping to a 28-month low of $1.17604 on Thursday.

  3. Traders await the key political plays in the UK, as well as headlines regarding inflation, employment and jobs report. Moving on, the key week starts with a light calendar, but UK employment data, Consumer Price Index, Retail Sales and preliminary PMIs for July will be crucial economics to watch for fresh impulse. Also, critical will be to watch the UK PM race and US PMIs for clear directions. Overall, GBP/USD is likely to be more volatile this week.

  4. The GBP/USD pair trades with clear positivity to attack the intraday bearish channel’s resistance that appears on the chart, hinting heading to achieve more expected gains on the intraday basis, to touch 1.1981 areas in the upcoming sessions.

  5. Bullish bias will be suggested for today and breaching 1.1981 will ease the mission of heading higher. Positive scenario will remain valid unless breaking 1.1809 and holding below it.