INTRADAY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS July 05th (observation as of 09:00 UTC)
[EURUSD]
Important Levels to Watch for:
- Resistance line of 1.09009
- Support line of 1. 08699
Commentary/ Reason:
1. The price is still in a wide range consolidation move as the price are creating lower highs and higher lows but the range is getting narrower as the price will decide on its long-term direction soon.
2. Economic data from Eurozone gave a negative outlook as it was revised down showing weaker economic activity in the region while US were muted on Independence Day.
3. The upcoming US factory orders and FOMC meeting minutes are expected to move the market only slightly.
4. The price is expected to trade lower but may rebound upward to resistance line where any break above or below will become its direction of trends.
5. Technical indicators are positive with mostly sells and some neutral as do moving averages except SMA200.
[USDCHF]
Important Levels to Watch for:
- Resistance line of 0.90017
- Support line of 0.89563
Commentary/ Reason:
1. The pair were on a wide range consolidation pattern with lower highs and higher lows, but the price seems to already break above the pattern, retraced and seems to want to continue upward.
2. Swiss banks are witnessing a rapid decline in cash deposits and foreign currency holdings, as deposits plunged by 262 billion francs in 9 months and the central bank reduced foreign currency holdings by almost 200 billion francs in a year, with three-quarters of Switzerland's reserves, exceeding one trillion dollars,
3. The upcoming US factory orders and FOMC meeting minutes are expected to move the market only slightly.
4. The price is expected to continue upward after its break from consolidation pattern but low volume may weigh down on its path to higher prices.
5. Technical indicators are mostly buy and neutral while all moving averages are buy.
[USDJPY]
Important Levels to Watch for:
- Resistance line of 144.436
- Support line of 144.232
Commentary/ Reason:
1. The pair were on a short-term uptrend with trough and highs before breaking below the trend which signifies weakness in continuing upward and readiness to plunge below.
2. The market is paying attention to the potential risk of intervention, but as a medium-term trend, the market is looking for further downside for the yen.
3. The upcoming US factory orders and FOMC meeting minutes are expected to move the market while Japan will report foreign bond buying only slightly.
4. The price is expected to rebound to at least resistance line or even higher to previous short term uptrend trough before continuing downward.
5. Technical indicators are mostly sell as well as moving averages.
[GBPUSD]
Important Levels to Watch for:
- Resistance line of 1.27222
- Support line of 1.27000
Commentary/ Reason:
1. The pair have been moving in wide range uptrend movement with reverse consolidation pattern which signifies increasing volume and interest in either direction but most likely upward.
2. traders discussed whether the currency would be affected by upcoming interest rate increases by the Bank of England. These rate hikes could potentially add more pressure to the economy.
3. The upcoming US factory orders and FOMC meeting minutes are expected to move the market only slightly.
4. The price is expected to continue upward if it does break above its immediate resistance but expected to weaken before have the strength to break upward.
5. Technical indicator is mixed while moving averages all pointed toward buys except SMA100.
