Thanksgiving was here, and retailers should be grateful after online sales in the U.S. grew 4% during the first half of Thanksgiving, thanks to attractive discounts, compared to 2% last year, according to Salesforce. Retailers like Walmart and Amazon already gained more than 9% since the start of November, standing to gain more this season. Apparel brands Abercrombie & Fitch and Gap raised its forecasts on strong demand, contrasting with those from Kohl's and Macy's. Salesforce data shows the peak shopping window will be between 7 p.m. and midnight, driving 35% of Thanksgiving's online sales. Overall, the holiday shopping season seems healthy, although it's set to grow at its slowest pace in six years.

EQUITY

Markets were on a break and will only open half a day on Friday, likely to track lower after Nvidia weighed down on the entire market, losing more than 7% since its earnings failed to impress. S&P 500 snaps its winning streak to below the 6,000 mark while the Dow is set to close the week higher than previous all-time highs. Changing expectation for a December cut does not help either after Fed Chair Powell's hawkish comment, although FOMC minutes support gradual cuts.

GOLD

Gold prices were holding steady and later rallied in the Asian session on a weaker dollar. Russia's threats of nuclear-capable missile strikes on Ukraine and Europe have paradoxically promoted gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset, limiting losses after central bank purchases dry up. The Federal Reserve's December rate cut chances are greatly monitored due to its volatility, with commodities markets now pricing a 70% probability of another cut, up from 56% just a week ago.

OIL

Oil markets were steady as geopolitical tensions and strategic negotiations shape near-term pricing dynamics. Ongoing conflicts in the Middle East and OPEC+ policy are putting the market in limbo. The ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah that temporarily mitigated supply risk concerns was broken with mutual accusations of violations, keeping the market anxious. OPEC+ postponed its next meeting to December 5th, expecting the group will extend production cuts to stabilise prices. Analysts from Goldman Sachs are eyeing disruptions, including a potential 1 million barrel per day cut in Iranian oil supply if Western sanctions enforcement intensifies.

CURRENCY

The Japanese yen is rapidly making gains, rising to a six-week high of 150 per dollar. The market is expecting that the Bank of Japan will hike interest rates in December after Tokyo inflation data printed 2.2% higher annually. The dollar is on track to lose about 1.5% this week despite maintaining a more than 2% gain for November attributed to Donald Trump's election victory.