Are the Fed's efforts futile? In January, the consumer price index in the US increased by 0.5% on a monthly basis, bringing it down to 6.4% annually, the seventh consecutive month of slowing expansion albeit being the first figures after adjustment were made to the formula. Despite aggressive increases in borrowing costs, Fed Chair Jerome Powell has warned that rates may need to stay higher for longer. Signs that inflation has both peaked and is slowly ebbing back down to the Fed's target of 2% have sparked hopes that the US economy may be able to dodge a recession.
EQUITY
It was a mixed day on Wall Street yesterday after the release of CPI data for January. The data showed that prices have accelerated, especially for energy, suggesting the Federal Reserve will be hawkish. Out of 11 S&P 500 sectors, seven declined, with real estate taking the biggest hit, while the consumer cyclical rose thanks to a massive surge in Tesla shares. Looking ahead, the focus is on January retail sales data for clues on consumer spending amid concerns of an economic slowdown.
GOLD
Gold prices stayed the same on Tuesday, despite high trading volume and volatile short term fluctuations. The Federal Reserve's hawkish stance on inflation has investors on edge, but mixed inflation data for January left everyone scratching their heads. Will gold rise or fall? Nobody knows for sure, but gold as a safe haven is becoming more attractive than before.
OIL
Oil prices are down due to increased supplies and soft demand, and the US is selling 26 million barrels from its reserves. Inventory figures are expected to show another crude oil build. While the Chinese economy's reopening is inevitable, there are other factors of uncertainty to stay alert to.
CURRENCY
The dollar rose to a six-week high against the yen and recovered from a two-week low against other currencies, bolstered by rising U.S. Treasury yields. Due to a slight uptick in consumer prices, the market expects high interest rates to continue. Analysts predict at least two more rate hikes by the Fed in the near term, which could keep the dollar relatively strong.