Important Levels to Watch for:

-        Resistance line of 1.09365 and 1.10005.

-        Support line of 1.07295 and 1.06655.

Commentary/ Reason:

  1. The beaten down euro managed to recover a little ground, was up 0.20% to $1.08729 on Thursday.

  2. Lower T-note yields sparked long liquidation in the dollar after the 10-year T-note yield fell from three-year highs on Wednesday.

  3. The euro meanwhile was supported on hawkish comment by Governing Council member Martins Kazak, who said the ECB may raise interest rates as soon as July amid “significant” inflation risks.

  4. With euro-area inflation at a record 7.5% and rising, policy makers are pressing ahead with unwinding monetary stimulus this year. Money markets are betting on more than a 50% chance of a quarter-point rate hike by July, with 25 basis points of tightening baked in for September and December.

  5. Remaining pandemic disruptions, supply chains and the war in Ukraine however keep the gains capped.

  6. European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde is set to take part in a panel discussion at the IMF-World Bank meeting later today, along with Fed Chair Jerome Powell, for clues of future monetary policy.




Important Levels to Watch for:

-        Resistance line of 0.95504 and 0.95866.

-        Support line of 0.94333 and 0.93972.

Commentary/ Reason:

  1. The franc continued to remain weak in the Thursday session, amidst expectations that the U.S. Fed would raise its interest rates in its upcoming meeting in early May.

  2. It was traded flat at 0.94815 dollar, not far from a 22-month low recorded overnight.

  3. The pair is expected to trade in a narrow range on Thursday as market participants focus on the Fed's next move.

  4. Tonight, Fed chair Jerome Powell will speak as a guest panelist at the International Monetary Fund’s seminar. Chances are he will want to reiterate the Fed’s stance on its monetary tightening.

  5. The USD/CHF pair hint the beginning of new bullish wave on the intraday basis, to keep the main bullish trend active on the intraday and short-term basis, targeting heading towards 0.955 areas mainly, followed by the round level resistance at 0.9600. Bullish trend will be suggested for the upcoming period conditioned by the price stability above 0.9433, as it act as support line.




Important Levels to Watch for Today:

-        Resistance line of 130.072 and 131.003.

-        Support line of 127.060 and 126.129.

Commentary/ Reason:                                        

  1. The dollar gained 0.20% on the yen to 128.005 on Thursday, as the yen's recovery on Wednesday — its first session of gains against the greenback in nearly two weeks — proved to be short-lived.

  2. The Japanese currency remains weaker against the dollar, struggled for weeks amid expectations the Bank of Japan will be slower in normalizing monetary policy than the U.S. Federal Reserve.

  3. The BoJ on Wednesday stepped into the bond market for the third time in three months to defend its zero-percent yield target, drawing a stark contrast with the Fed's increasingly hawkish posture.

  4. Japan has also been running trade deficits as energy import costs soar, further undermining the yen. While a weak yen boosts Japanese exports, it inflates import costs for energy and food products that have already seen prices jump due to the war in Ukraine.




Important Levels to Watch for:

-        Resistance line of 1.30948 and 1.31253.

-        Support line of 1.29959 and 1.29730.

Commentary/ Reason:

  1. Sterling was flat at $1.30674 on Thursday.

  2. Inflation, growth worries and uncertainty stemming from a war in Ukraine kept the overnight gains capped on sterling.

  3. While lower yields weighed on the U.S. dollar. Benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury yields fell from three-year highs on Wednesday. It was last at 2.876%, a whisker higher, but still bruised after falling overnight from as high as 2.981% on Wednesday.

  4. The GBP/USD staged a solid recovery from sub-1.3000 levels amid broad-based USD weakness. The GBP/USD pair ended yesterday above the resistance lines and expected for more intraday gains in the upcoming sessions, targeting visiting 1.310 mainly. Therefore, we expect to witness more bullish today.

  5. Some follow-through selling below the YTD low, around the 1.297 region, would make the GBP/USD pair vulnerable to accelerate the slide towards testing lower.