INTRADAY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS 13 JULY (observation as of 08:45 UTC)


Important Levels to Watch for:

-        Resistance line of 1.01099 and 1.01836.

-        Support line of 0.99625 and 0.98888.

Commentary/ Reason:

  1. The euro languished at $1.00308, hovered a whisker above parity on the dollar on Wednesday.

  2. It was down nearly 12% this year and fell to a 20-year low on Tuesday, with the common currency weakened by Europe’s energy supply concerns and economic troubles, while the safe-haven greenback has been supported by global growth worries.

  3. The euro could fall further if fast-rising U.S. consumer prices keep investors betting on U.S. rate rises. The headline U.S. inflation is forecasted to accelerate to 8.8% YoY in June, a 40-year high, which is likely to reinforce expectations of interest rate hikes and help the dollar.

  4. The EUR/USD pair settles at the parity level at 1.0000, with stochastic begins to overlap negatively now, to form negative motive to push the price to resume the bearish bias and head towards our the 0.9962 target.

  5. Bearish scenario will remain suggested for the upcoming period supported by the negative pressure formed by the EMA50, taking into consideration that holding below 1.0109 is required to achieve the waited targets, as breaching it will push the price to start correctional bullish wave on the intraday basis.




Important Levels to Watch for:

-        Resistance line of 0.98809 and 0.99357.

-        Support line of 0.97713 and 0.97165.

Commentary/ Reason:

  1. The Swiss franc rebounded from Tuesday's losses to open higher against the U.S. dollar on Wednesday, as slightly cheaper prices prompted some investors to return to the safe haven currency.

  2. The dollar slipped 0.32% to last bought 0.97894 franc.

  3. The USD/CHF pair found solid resistance at 0.9880, to show some temporary bearish bias, noticing that stochastic got rid of its negative momentum to approach the oversold areas, waiting to resume the bullish wave and surpass the mentioned level to open the way to head towards the next main target at 0.9935.

  4. Bullish trend scenario will remain valid and active conditioned by the price stability above 0.9771.




Important Levels to Watch for Today:

-        Resistance line of 138.007 and 139.066.

-        Support line of 135.889 and 134.830.

Commentary/ Reason:                                        

  1. The Japanese yen weakened 0.20% to 137.139 per dollar, was not far off its lowest since 1998 on Monday at 137.748.

  2. The Japanese yen has taken a beating as the Bank of Japan sticks with its ultra-easy monetary policy in contrast with tightening nearly everywhere else. The BoJ remains the only major central bank that has maintained ultra-easy policies at a time other major economies are racing ahead with interest rate hikes to combat surging inflation. The BoJ left its key interest rates unchanged at its June meeting and vowed to defend an implicit 0.25% yield cap on the 10-year Japanese government bond.

  3. The demand for the greenback also was strong amid a decline in global stock markets linked to renewed fears of more China’s economic problems as a new outbreak of COVID-19 was reported in Shanghai.

  4. The USD/JPY pair and kept its stability above support line at 135.889 it, to regain bullish wave, which targets 138.00 areas. Bullish scenario will remain active on the intraday and short-term basis, supported by the positive signal provided by stochastic now, noting that breaking 135.889 will stop the suggested rise and press on the price to turn to decline.




Important Levels to Watch for:

-        Resistance line of 1.21320 and 1.22056.

-        Support line of 1.18514 and 1.17647.

Commentary/ Reason:

  1. Sterling was last trading at $1.18938, rose 0.10% on Wednesday, though remain weighed after falling to more than two years low overnight.

  2. Sterling has slipped on the stronger dollar and adrift in the wake of the resignation of British Prime Minister Boris Johnson last week. Sterling may suffer a lack of fresh direction until the new PM is in place.

  3. However, although political uncertainty may cause volatility from time to time, it is unlikely to become the main driver of sterling in the short term. The BoE’s monetary policy and the UK macroeconomic outlook remains more relevant for the pound.

  4. UK GDP data is due at 0600 GMT today as the next hurdle.

  5. The greenback meanwhile continued to strengthen its appeal as a safe-haven currency amid the risk-off sentiment surrounding the market.