INTRADAY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS 28 JUNE (observation as of 07:10 UTC)

[EURUSD]

Important Levels to Watch for:

-        Resistance line of 1.06309 and 1.06832.

-        Support line of 1.04615 and 1.04092.

Commentary/ Reason:

  1. The euro rose 0.15% to $1.05987 on Tuesday.

  2. The euro was helped by expectations that the European Central Bank will soon raise interest rates for the first time in more than a decade.

  3. The euro also won support as traders braced for European inflation figures to run hot this week and awaited a speech from central bank chief Christine Lagarde, while worries about a recession kept the U.S. dollar firm.

  4. However, higher T-note yields Monday limited losses in the dollar along with expectations that end-of-month and quarter rebalancing flows are seen as supporting the dollar.

  5. The EUR/USD pair tested 1.0600 barrier, showing some slight bearish bias affected by stochastic negativity, while the EMA50 continues to provide the positive support to the price. The euro at one point poked above its 50-day moving average.

  6. The chances to resume the bullish wave that targets 1.0630 mainly remain valid, organized inside the bullish channel that appears on the chart, while holding above 1.0461 is important to continue the expected rise.

  7. European Central Bank President Lagarde is due to speak at the ECB forum in Sintra, Portugal, at 0800 GMT on Tuesday. Meanwhile German inflation figures are due on Wednesday, French data on Thursday and eurozone numbers on Friday.

EURUSD

              

[USDCHF]

Important Levels to Watch for:

-        Resistance line of 0.96431 and 0.96853.

-        Support line of 0.95065 and 0.94643.

Commentary/ Reason:

  1. The dollar was flat against the Swiss franc on Tuesday, trading at 0.95553.

  2. The USD/CHF remains pressured, declining for the last two weeks and eyeing to refresh the two-month low.

  3. Moves were modest as traders try and navigate between relief that signs of weakness in recent global economic data can moderate rate hikes and worry that it could be a harbinger of the onset of a difficult period of stagflation.

  4. The weak spot against the Swiss franc has rocketed to test parity on the common currency following a surprise rate hike by the Swiss National Bank earlier in June.

  5. The USD/CHF pair achieved temporary gains yesterday and approached 0.9643 level, but it bounced bearishly. The EMA50 continues to press negatively on the price, to suggest more bearish bias on the intraday and short-term basis unless breaching 0.9643 and holding above it.

USDCHF

 

[USDJPY]

Important Levels to Watch for Today:

-        Resistance line of 136.328 and 137.067.

-        Support line of 133.939 and 133.201.

Commentary/ Reason:                                        

  1. The dollar held modest overnight gains against the Japanese yen and traded at 135.622 yen on Tuesday.

  2. The dollar and Japanese yen both found support, benefiting from a bid for safety as investors worried rising interest rates and softening economic data could signal a global recession is on the horizon.

  3. USD/JPY gains as higher T-note yields weighed on the yen.  A rally in the Nikkei Stock Index since yesterday also reduced the safe-haven demand for the yen.

  4. The USD/JPY pair traded with clear positivity yesterday to test the key resistance 136.3280, while stochastic returns to provide the negative signals again, waiting to motivate the price to resume the negative trading that its targets begin by breaking 133.939 towards 133.201.

USDJPY

 

[GBPUSD]

Important Levels to Watch for:

-        Resistance line of 1.24003 and 1.25543.

-        Support line of 1.20293 and 1.19383.

Commentary/ Reason:

  1. Sterling was rested at $1.22825.

  2. The British pound struggles for clear directions as it seesaws rangebound around two-week-long.

  3. A sharp rally in stocks curbed liquidity demand for the dollar today.

  4. The GBP/USD pair returns to fluctuate around the EMA50, testing the bullish channel’s support line that appears on the chart, while stochastic attempts to gain the positive momentum again.

  5. The consolidation behaviour, however, could end later in the week, paving the way for a technical breakout amid several key high-impact events on the calendar, including a speech by Fed Chair Powell and BoE's Bailey at the ECB’s Sintra retreat.

GBPUSD